In the News
Distinguished Policy Fellow Nimrod Novik appeared on Dan Raviv’s The Mossad Files.
Director of Strategic Initiatives and IPF Atid Director Shanie Reichman appeared on The Jew York Times podcast with Eitan Levine to explain Israel’s political system and what it would take for a new prime minister to take office.
Director of Strategic Initiatives and IPF Atid Director Shanie Reichman appeared on The Pluralist Podcast with Orly Erez-Likhovski and Rabbi Josh Weinberg to discuss liberal Zionism.
“‘ROI changed the nature of who I meet in Israel. I always came here to see family and visit childhood friends who hold a very narrow worldview, and ROI opened my eyes to the different types of people in Israel. Now the main people I come to visit are my ROI community.’ It was through ROI that she met her eventual collaborator, Mor Yahalom, with whom she built IPF’s Shared Values Project.”
– Shanie Reichman in eJewishPhilanthropy
Michael Koplow was featured on War on the Rocks to discuss what Israel sought to accomplish with the war that began on February 28, the changes in U.S.-Israeli relations since then, Israel’s approach toward Lebanon, how the situation is shaping Israel’s upcoming elections, and whether there’s a reasonably plausible U.S.-Iranian deal that Israel would see as acceptable:
“The differences between the two countries and the two leaders have been exposed. The very leak of the phone call, with language that more befits a brawl in a bar, suggests Trump’s displeasure that the Iran operation has gone sour. We may be watching the incremental build-up of a push to put the blame of the war on Netanyahu.”
– Nimrod Novik in The i Paper
“Those who want to counter the idea that Israel and the United States should be working together have exaggerated what this legislation is actually saying. They are accusing it of things like integrating the U.S. and Israeli militaries, or subjugating the U.S. military to the Israeli military. None of that is actually called for in here.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in The Forward
“Ironically, the future of the relationship may ultimately depend on Iran. If Tehran remains confrontational in its dealings with Washington, Trump and Netanyahu are likely to stay aligned. If Iran moves toward a real agreement with the U.S., that could become the most serious test of the relationship between the two leaders.”
– Dan Rothem in Newsweek
“At this point in the war, Trump and Netanyahu have different interests at play. Trump’s priority is to re-open the Strait of Hormuz to stabilize global energy markets and bring down the price of fuel, and Netanyahu wants to continue degrading Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and nuclear program. Trump promised Israel a level of victory over Iran that is far from what has transpired. Trump seems to want the war to end so he can move on, and Netanyahu would prefer the opportunity to finish the job Israel and the U.S. started on Feb. 28. Both have election politics in mind, with Israeli elections on the horizon for [the fall] and U.S. midterm elections in November. At the moment the war isn’t helping either of them.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in Jewish Insider
“There was no way that Netanyahu—when he’s so close to an election when he’s underwater, and when people are already angry about what’s going on in northern Israel [where Hezbollah is firing missiles]—could simply not respond to direct Iranian ballistic missiles on Israeli territory.”
– Michael Koplow in Vox
Michael Koplow was featured on TEXTing IRL to discuss what it would take to sustain a meaningful relationship with the Jewish state—and a shared sense of Jewish peoplehood—in this moment:
Nimrod Novik was featured on CNN to discuss the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, tensions with the Trump administration, and the prospects for regional peace:
“Obviously the Israelis would love to have an expansion of the Abraham Accords and obviously they would love to normalize with Saudi Arabia. But I think they also understand that linking these things—the Iran issue to normalization—doesn’t serve their interests as well.”
– Michael Koplow in NBC News
Michael Koplow was featured on Identity/Crisis to discuss the war in Iran and the limits of strategy:
“Once the dream came true, reality did not match the promise. While both militaries’ performance has been impressive and Iran’s military capacity eroded substantially, nonetheless, quite a few of its premises proved wrong. The regime did not collapse; its nuclear ambitions are yet to be permanently quashed; its ballistic missile threat exists; and its commitment to violent regional proxies is still manifest. Dismissing the likelihood of Iran playing the Hormuz card and striking its neighbors across the Gulf proved wrong as well.”
– Nimrod Novik in Newsweek
“Top priority for Israel is the disarmament—and more so, dissolution—of Hezbollah, and retaining the freedom of action to continue to strike Hezbollah where and when they determine necessary for their own self defense. For the Lebanese government, sitting at the table with the Israeli government is both politically risky and an important opportunity for them to be recognized as and assert their place as the only recognized authority of the Lebanese state.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in Jewish Insider
“Basically, this is a projection on top of a projection that mixes data and assumptions from different time periods and relies on a number of unsupported assumptions to arrive at a result that is not matched either by the existing ground data or plausible assessments of uncounted deaths in Gaza.”
– Gabriel Epstein in The Times of Israel
“There was a serious school of thought here that said that, when it comes to Iran, Netanyahu has no choice but to go for a ceasefire if that’s what Trump wants, but when it comes to Lebanon, he will defy him. He can’t, not in an election year, when he’s counting on Trump perhaps to campaign on his behalf, and at least not to throw him under the bus.”
– Nimrod Novik in The New York Times
Nimrod Novik was featured on the Mossad Files on if the war with Iran was worth it:
“In 1956, the British and French proved politically unreliable, certainly once the U.S. banged its fist on the table. Israel’s brilliant military achievements produced no lasting stable security environment. I wonder whether we are in for an equally—even more significant—disappointing ending in Iran, where joining forces with a transformative ambition ends up but another round with more to come.”
– Nimrod Novik in The New Yorker
“[Gulf countries] will not only have to confront the losses from physical infrastructure destruction but also from a pause on investments, business, tourism, and energy resources. I expect they will reconsider how much money is left for Gaza and the Palestinian Authority.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in Jewish Insider
Nimrod Novik was featured on ILTV to analyze President Trump’s and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s differing end goals for the war with Iran:
“Reviewing cases of militants who held dual civilian roles in key sectors like media, healthcare, and education is important for the historical record and underscores the information limitations press, government, and analysts face in real time during conflict. Over time, militant identification can give a sense of just how deep Hamas, PIJ, and other militant groups’ hold over key sectors in Gaza was.”
– Gabriel Epstein in Fox News
“Hamas still controls roughly half of Gaza. Hezbollah is now putting up a much bigger fight than many people here had been led to believe after the ceasefire in 2024, [and] after last June’s war against Iran, Israel and the U.S. are back in an even bigger war against Iran. That’s where the danger lies for Netanyahu—that his past promises will come back to haunt him, and even the current campaign, fought at such scale alongside the most powerful military in the world, will not actually bring about the results that he’s promised the Israeli public.”
– Neri Zilber in BBC
“Iran is deliberately and disproportionately targeting the UAE partially because it is easy, given the UAE’s proximity to Iran, and more importantly, because it is an easy target that Iran knows will exact a global cost financially, and a military cost for the United States and the region.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in Jewish Insider
“Iran’s decision to attack neighboring Arab states was intended to impose escalating costs that would theoretically put pressure on the U.S. to bring the war to a halt. So far it has backfired as the U.S. and Israel show no signs of backing down, while there are reports that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are contemplating taking their own action against Iranian missiles and launchers.”
– Michael Koplow in Jewish Insider
“No single point of progress or failure exists in isolation. For Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza to have a chance of success, his team must keep the pressure on to achieve incremental progress—not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank and across the region. In addition to trying to achieve stabilization and security in Gaza, U.S. officials should find time to keep tabs on events in the West Bank. The Israeli government’s pursuit of de facto annexation—laying the groundwork to prevent a two-state outcome from ever being realized—has the potential to re-ignite conflict not only in the West Bank and Israel, but could also have ramifications for Jordan, Lebanon, and current and future Abraham Accords partners. Simultaneously, it is essential to keep pushing for Palestinian Authority reform, ensure Arab state support, and keep everyone invested in what happens in Gaza and the West Bank—as well as eventual integration of Israel into the region. This is the only viable path to Israeli-Palestinian peace and long-term regional security and stability.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in War on the Rocks
“I think President Trump wants a win—but it’s not clear yet whether that win needs to be related to Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile program, both, or regime change. If his team can conclude an agreement that he can spin as halting Iran’s nuclear program, for example, that may be enough for him to claim victory and walk away. Prime Minister Netanyahu, on the other hand, wants to finish the job he started in June 2025—whether by striking additional targets that get at Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear program, or taking out the current Iranian regime entirely. It is unlikely that any deal the Trump team can conclude will sufficiently assuage Israel’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear program or ballistic missile program.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in Newsweek
“Hamas as a group, and certainly not as it’s currently constituted, can’t responsibly be given any role in future Gaza governance. It’s probably going to involve making distinctions between Hamas fighters and Hamas bureaucrats, and making some very difficult choices about what level of reintegration, if any, you’re willing to allow for former Hamas members. Then the question is, does anybody who’s ever had a Hamas affiliation have to be hunted down and eliminated over time, or is there a world in which they can, as individuals, be integrated into whatever future Gaza governance and society looks like?”
– Michael Koplow in Jewish Insider
“U.S. military intervention in Iran remains likely in light of President Trump’s demonstrated willingness to use force and the U.S. military buildup in the region. Given the gulf between the American and Iranian positions and the general hard-line position of the Iranian regime on nuclear issues, it is hard to tag a nuclear deal as a likely outcome.”
– Michael Koplow in Jewish Insider
“Bringing Ran Gvili back to Israel for burial closes the book on the most painful chapter in Israel’s history. Hopefully this will not only bring closure to all of those who fought so hard for the hostages’ return, but also allow a tough policy process to advance a bit more.”
– Michael Koplow in eJewishPhilanthropy
“The close U.S.-Israel relationship has created a decades-long anti-American and anti-Israel front that links opposition to one as part and parcel of opposition to the other in a larger anti-imperialist position that takes an anti-Western and anti-Zionist stance, and we are seeing that play out in the Venezuela situation as well.”
– Michael Koplow in Jewish Insider
Nimrod Novik was featured on the Mossad Files podcast to preview the December 29 Trump-Bibi meeting:
“Significantly downsizing resources and personnel from the region in an effort to withdraw from the Middle East is only going to cause problems down the road. Ensuring that the Middle East builds upon the integration stemming from the Abraham Accords and efforts to realize initiatives requires a focused and well-helmed regional command.”
– Michael Koplow in Jewish Insider
“Disarming Hamas will be a process; it will take time. And if there is no further Israeli withdrawal, however limited, and no International Stabilization Force, and no beginning of reconstruction, then the temporary becomes permanent. And, we have a situation where Israel is here. Hamas is there. Each controls half the strip, and the inevitable friction will mean a resumption of fighting.”
– Nimrod Novik in The New York Times
“I think Bibi understands better than Trump that Trump can undermine his electoral prospects with one social post. The moment Trump distances himself from him—either by saying, ‘This guy is bad news,’ or even more softly, by saying, ‘I will work equally closely with any Israeli prime minister’—that’s enough to affect things.”
– Nimrod Novik in The New York Times
“Had Israel treated the areas that the IDF cleared out over the course of the war as opportunity zones to create a functional day after, it would have prevented Hamas from re-establishing itself in those places once the IDF left—which is why the IDF kept on entering the same neighborhoods three or even four times.”
– Michael Koplow in The New York Times
“If it turns out in four or five weeks that the general mood in the country is that this war was an awful round, but only another round, and Hamas is back, I can see Netanyahu trying to correct that. All you need is a Hamas provocation and a disproportionate Israeli reaction, and you can have a spiral.”
– Nimrod Novik in The New York Times
“A week ago, his accomplishment was considered impossible. Yet, with tremendous resolve and at a lightning speed, he forced an odd coalition of countries with conflicting interests to join hands in pressing Hamas to go along, while taking it upon himself to force Netanyahu to accept a deal harder to swallow than ones he previously rejected. Like a powerful particle accelerator. Trump forced all involved—parties and mediators alike—to move in hypersonic speed, and got it done.”
– Nimrod Novik in Newsweek
On Bloomberg TV, Rachel Brandenburg provided analysis on the process to implement Trump’s 20-point plan for an end to the war in Gaza:
“These [conditions] were a complete Israeli withdrawal, a clear role for the Palestinian Authority from the outset, and a credible Israeli commitment to a future two–state solution. But during the negotiations in the lead–up to the White House ceremony, Netanyahu managed to dilute those Arab conditions by making IDF withdrawal unbinding, PA involvement remote and uncertain, and the terms for Palestinian statehood obscure.”
– Nimrod Novik in The Philadelphia Inquirer
The Mossad Files interviewed Nimrod Novik to discuss President Trump’s 20-point peace plan:
“Should Netanyahu win the next elections, he can be expected to remain focused on preventing two processes from reaching their logical conclusion. First, his trial for corruption. Second, an impartial investigation of his decade-long strategy of sustaining Hamas control over Gaza prior to October 7, the colossal failure on that day, as well as his government being MIA for months, when needed most after the trauma.”
– Nimrod Novik in Newsweek
“This is the most comprehensive proposal that the Trump Administration has offered yet. It is relatively light on details, but the principles reflected in it hit almost all the points it should to have even a chance of consideration by the range of stakeholders, from Israel to the PA, the Arab world, and maybe Hamas. The language is pretty carefully crafted and hedges a lot, but it is notable that the proposal mentions the prospect of an eventual Palestinian State—which is not something the Trump team had articulated yet this term.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in Newsweek
Unpacking Israeli History featured Michael Koplow to discuss the history of Palestinian statehood efforts, why each one failed, and why he doubts the U.N.’s recent recognition vote will change realities on the ground:
“The one thing he has left to say is that none of his rivals will be strong enough to stand up to the world in resisting a two-state solution. He’s going to run on the fear that Israelis have that they’re going to be bulldozed into creating this thing that they don’t want.”
– Michael Koplow in The New York Times
“As symbolic as it may be, the international push for recognition of a Palestinian state runs the risk of provoking an Israeli response that makes getting to a Palestinian state only more difficult. On the Palestinian side, the symbolic international gestures could raise the hopes of Palestinians in ways that backfire, when Palestinians see that the symbolism does nothing to improve their lives.”
– Michael Koplow in Christian Science Monitor
The Identity/Crisis podcast featured Michael Koplow to discuss Netanyahu’s political strategy following last week’s strikes in Doha and the beginning of the Gaza City ground offensive:
“The same person who asked Qatar to host Hamas, to fund Hamas, and to mediate with Hamas has suddenly become hostile to the same regime. If you want to convey ‘I don’t share the same allegiance to Qatar’ as [my former aides], then nothing can nail that objective more than a military strike in Qatar.”
– Nimrod Novik in The Washington Post
The Mossad Files featured Nimrod Novik, who provided optimism for post-war and post-election possibilities:
“Separation from the Palestinians will always involve a burden on both populations, that was always going to be the case, whether under the 1947 partition plan, the Oslo Accords, or future arrangements. I don’t view it as a final nail in any coffin. I don’t think it makes two states an impossibility.”
– Michael Koplow in The Times of Israel
Nimrod Novik spoke to CNN about the letter from Commanders for Israel’s Security, made up of 550 former senior Israeli security officials, calling on President Trump to end the war and bring all of the hostages home, and more:
“Israel is in the tightest spot it has been in at any point in the war. It is dealing with a societal crisis over the continued war and plight of the hostages, a military crisis over the lack of clear aims and reservist fatigue, a diplomatic crisis over its close European allies lining up to unilaterally recognize Palestinian statehood, and an existential crisis over its eroding standing in the U.S.”
– Michael Koplow in The New York Times
Nimrod Novik was interviewed on CNN, warning that a “diplomatic tsunami” is coming for Israel as more countries move to recognize a Palestinian state:
“There’s a diplomatic tsunami against Israel like nothing anyone has ever seen. It was very clear from American politicians on both sides of the aisle—even Republican politicians and affiliated national security experts—that there is complete disapproval of the images coming from Gaza. Even those who think Hamas was at fault for the situation thought that Israel needs to change its position. Whether you’re Republican or Democrat you don’t want to see children starve.”
– Shira Efron in The New York Times
“There is a lot of mental gymnastics from the Israeli bureaucracy calculating the calories that get into Gaza, but those pictures coming out of Gaza are getting hard to ignore. The real issue is the strategic deadlock Israel is in. When Israel violated the last ceasefire in March, it vowed that with greater military pressure, with the prevention of humanitarian aid falling to Hamas and with the introduction of the GHF, Hamas will wave the white flag. Yet that combination of strategies has not helped bring Hamas closer to surrender. If we’re still far from a ceasefire, then Israel has to do something.”
– Shira Efron in The Washington Post
“There’s a blame game, and everyone is looking at the technical details and about how the aid is distributed. But the bigger issue is the lawlessness and the breakdown of governance. After 22 months of war, it’s anarchy in Gaza. And without addressing the core issue of what should happen next in Gaza, there won’t be a solution.”
– Shira Efron in The New York Times
The Mossad Files interviewed Shira Efron on the Trump-Netanyahu meetings in Washington and their discussions about Iran, Gaza, and the hostages:
“The big stumbling block at the moment…even to get to a temporary ceasefire is the lines to which the IDF will withdraw. What I am hearing is that…in the last few hours, Israel is showing more flexibility [on the Morag Corridor]…because of messages from the Americans.”
– Shira Efron in Diplomatic
Vox’s Today, Explained Podcast featured Michael Koplow to provide context and analysis on the Trump-Netanyahu meetings:
“President Trump would like to secure the terms of a ceasefire and some amount of agreement that Israel doesn’t strike Iran again, but Prime Minister Netanyahu probably just wants to take a victory lap and not have to agree on anything that risks his own political standing.”
– Rachel Brandenburg in The New York Times
“Emboldened by their leaders’ serving in such powerful positions and regularly signaling tolerance if not support for violence against innocent Palestinians, those extremist settlers—by now organized and armed—have made the most of national, regional and international attention focused elsewhere. With all eyes on Gaza, Lebanon and more recently Iran, the intensity of their violence over the past year has been unprecedented.”
– Nimrod Novik in Newsweek
“This was the sentiment here when Trump was elected, when Netanyahu visited, when he came back from Washington visit number one. I mean, this whole thing was like, ‘Oh, the Americans are with us, and that’s it. We’re going to do whatever we want.’ And slowly, we’re seeing that it’s not necessarily happening,”
– Shira Efron in JTA
Joining Dan Raviv on The Mossad Files, Michael Koplow reflects on the state of the Gaza war, nuclear talks with Iran, coalition politics, and more:
“Israel and the Trump administration are not on the same page with regard to Turkey or Syria, and there is doubtless consternation in Israel over the fact that the same person is going to oversee Turkey and Syria policy simultaneously, which is a tacit acknowledgment that the U.S. views Turkey as the primary outside player in Syria.”
– Michael Koplow in Haaretz
“Netanyahu is trying to do a little bit of everything. By announcing a bigger ground operation, he is showing his base he is doing something. By announcing the resumption of aid, he is responding to pressure from the Trump administration, while buying more time for hostage negotiations.”
– Shira Efron in The New York Times
“There is still a possibility that there is some sort of skinny deal, but at the moment, the Israeli government seems to be a bit stuck in terms of what it wants to do. If I’m the Israeli government, I wouldn’t be quite sure at this point what the U.S. is willing to back, and I think that has to give the Israeli some caution in terms of launching a massive operation.”
– Michael Koplow in The Washington Post
The Mossad Files featured Nimrod Novik to discuss how President Trump’s stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE put pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu:
“He’s [Trump] going to the Arab countries and they’re treating him like royalty. There’s a Trump golf course, a hotel, a plane, all these things. It’s a question of at what point do they want to use this economic leverage they have with him to ask him to please curb Israel in Gaza and Iran and stabilize the region?”
– Shira Efron in Politico
“Most Israelis see a war with no end that could dig us into the Gaza mud for who knows how many years. Look at all the reservists, the injured, and the PTSD in this country. Israel also needs to heal. There is yearning on the part of the Israeli public for Trump to save us…and possibly force Israel’s hand.”
– Shira Efron in Christian Science Monitor
“Will Trump be interested in forcing Israel’s hand to accept a full ceasefire? I am not sure. Can Netanyahu choose the latter course—yes, but then he loses his coalition, which he is unwilling to risk for now. Clearly, Trump’s unique style, unexpected behavior, his approval ratings in Israel, and after the precedent of the Zelensky ‘treatment,’ Netanyahu has far less tools to protest the Trump administration’s actions that concern Israel.”
– Shira Efron in Newsweek
“I just don’t buy [reports of a U.S.-Israel rift]. To me, there are indications that the alliance is still there and there are still deep ties…[but] there could be a statement from the Trump administration that forces Israel’s hand to do something it doesn’t want. Anything about Gaza that is not fully coordinated with Israel will be things Israel won’t be happy to hear.”
– Shira Efron in Jewish Insider
The Israel Connection featured Gabriel Epstein to discuss Israel Policy Forum’s new explainer on the quiet surge in West Bank settlements:
“For Israel, a bad [Iran] deal would be the worst of all outcomes. A bad deal in 2015 is not like a bad deal would be now. On the one hand, Iran is weaker—after the Israeli strikes on its air defenses and defeat of its proxies in Lebanon and Syria—but on the other, its nuclear program is a lot more advanced. The restrictions [in a deal] will have a different utility than they did 10 years ago.”
– Shira Efron in Jewish Insider
“Netanyahu is going about judicial reform this time in a smarter way. Whereas the initial attempt would have allowed the government to control the appointment of judges entirely on its own, this bill makes appointing judges a more political process that requires explicit opposition buy-in to appoint judges, as opposed to the current system that gives Supreme Court justices and bar representatives a veto. There is going to be less natural opposition to a reform that makes appointing judges subject to political horse trading between the government and the opposition than there was to a reform that would have put it all under the government’s control.”
– Michael Koplow in Newsweek
“Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not the same country. The Saudis are not the Emirates 2.0 who were just late to the party. The Abraham Accords were open to Saudi Arabia five years ago and they decided against joining them for a variety of reasons…those saying Saudi Arabia will normalize ties with Israel and that Saudi Arabia doesn’t care about the Palestinians are simply engaged in ‘Saudi-splaining’ and it’s not helpful.”
– Shira Efron in The Times of Israel
“Since the budget passed, Netanyahu may double down on extreme right-wing populism and the war in Gaza, or figure out an exit strategy and attempt a dash to a Saudi normalization deal, but whichever it is will reflect his own calculations rather than his coalition partners.”
– Michael Koplow in The New York Times
“What we’re really trying to do is set out pragmatic policies that will help U.S. foreign policy get to a viable resolution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. So my job is thinking through what those types of policies are and making suggestions for how the U.S. can be helpful in getting to a viable resolution.”
– Michael Koplow in The Washington Jewish Week
“The real fear is that all of this fighting was just another round. That is why if we don’t seriously spend the next 42 days identifying options for a transitional authority in Gaza that is the Palestinian Authority supported by Arab and international players, we may well find ourselves with a very adverse outcome.”
– Shira Efron in The Christian Science Monitor
“There are a bunch of factors that could weigh against a very quick push toward annexation. And while I think that the signals coming from the Israeli side are a lot clearer in this regard, particularly appointing [former settler leader] Yechiel Leiter as ambassador to D.C., I think that on the U.S. side of things, the picture from Trump land is not nearly so clear.”
– Michael Koplow in JTA
“Gallant is far more sensitive to the security establishment’s priorities, which have been more interested in prioritizing bringing the hostages home, whereas Netanyahu feels political pressure not to do that from the far right, not wanting to concede anything to Hamas.”
– Alex Lederman in The New Arab
“The good thing is that, because he’s [Trump] unpredictable, despite being president four years—It’s pretty remarkable that he’s still so unpredictable—that he’s creating some sort of deterrence effect. I’m sure the same conversations are happening now in Ukraine and China, Taiwan and North Korea and in Iran and Israel: ‘What is he going to do?’ And we don’t know. And because of this deterrent effect, [Trump] might have leverage on the players.”
– Shira Efron in Jewish Telegraphic Agency
“Trump did many things that were supportive of Israel and that the Israeli government wanted but they didn’t require a huge degree of American commitment. This time around, the Israelis now for over a year have been getting huge amounts of U.S. support and the longer the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon continues, the more that is going to have to continue. That gets blown up exponentially if there is increasing conflict between Israel and Iran.”
– Michael Koplow in The Wall Street Journal
“Within Israel, expectations for Trump—who was widely favored among Israelis—are mixed. On the extreme-right, there is the notion that with Trump, Israel will have a free hand in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, and even Iran had better watch out. On the center-left, there is the expectation that unlike [President Joe] Biden, Trump will not let Netanyahu push him around, which might present Netanyahu with the first serious dilemma of choosing between standing up to his messianic coalition partners or to an unpredictable Trump.”
– Nimrod Novik in TIME
“By firing Mr. Gallant, Mr. Netanyahu is “evidently calculating that it will only be a short-term firestorm and he will then be left in a better position.” But his support for the policies opposed by Mr. Gallant “will cost him in the long term. So even if his short term calculation is correct, he may turn out to be penny-wise and pound-foolish.”
– Michael Koplow in The New York Times
“Gallant was the minister who the U.S. trusted the most. When it comes to core defense issues, things like U.S.-Israel coordination against Iran, humanitarian issues in Gaza, Netanyahu just got rid of the main point person for that and replaced him with someone who doesn’t have that kind of relationship with the U.S.”
– Michael Koplow in The Wall Street Journal
“It’s an Israeli fantasy that Gulf states will come with their money to save Gaza [as long as Israel’s government opposes the PA’s involvement]. The UAE was as explicit as possible in their writing and public [remarks] as they have been in private, and the same goes for Saudi Arabia as well as the Egyptians and other countries. They said that when they are invited by the Palestinians to come help Gaza, they will come and support it. They’re not going to take over.”
– Shira Efron in Jewish Insider
Nimrod Novik was interviewed on CBC:
“His symbolic death as being the last one of the Hamas leaders, but also the mastermind of the October 7 attack, gives Israel the ladder to climb down from the total victory tree and say, ‘OK, we have won the war.’ We can wind down the war in Gaza and move toward a different reality on the ground.”
– Shira Efron in VOA
“You can’t disconnect Israel’s response to Iran from a presidential election less than four weeks away and what it will do to global energy prices. I think Israel is going to push for the maximal possible response, which is not a new dynamic, and the U.S. is going to push Israel to dial things back.”
– Michael Koplow in JTA
“While there will undoubtedly be a desire to prevent an escalatory cycle that leads to a wider regional war, the U.S. should be coordinating with Israel to figure out how Israel can respond in a robust and non-symbolic way that still provides Iran with a plausible ladder it can climb down.”
– Michael Koplow in Jewish Insider
“Israel falls squarely into the U.S.-led bloc [in opposition to the Iran-China-Russia alliance]. If you’re the U.S., even if you’re deeply unsettled about some of the things that Israel is doing in Gaza, you’re not going to enact an arms embargo when you want to see Israel beat back the challenges Iran poses in the region.”
– Michael Koplow in The Wall Street Journal
“I don’t really understand how it is that a presidential nominee can say something like this at an event that is billed as fighting antisemitism and standing up for Jews. It’s mind-blowing. I think it betrays a lack of knowledge and sensitivity in Trump’s heart towards what antisemitism actually is.”
– Michael Koplow in The Forward
“101 hostages are still in Hamas captivity, Hamas is not eliminated, over 100,000 Israelis have been displaced for a year with no prospect of ever going back to their homes, and Israel is facing an economic crisis and a diplomatic tsunami. Theoretically, a ceasefire in Gaza could lead to de-escalation all around, including in the north, but this option has little political feasibility with the current government, which sadly means war is more likely than cessation of hostilities.”
– Shira Efron in The Washington Post
“Strategically, the situation has not changed and we are where we were. This in practice means continuous attritional war, with constant risk of escalation with no end in sight. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of Israelis and millions of Palestinians continue to suffer amidst a region teetering on the edge.“
– Shira Efron in The New York Times
“These are things that are going to require lots of investments: investment in U.S. money and U.S. time, investment in marshaling other countries in the region to pitch in and be on the same page. There is no substitute for U.S. leadership in this regard. I’m pretty confident that if we have a Harris administration, there will be real dedication to these issues and some real thought given to what has to happen on the day after in Gaza.“
– Michael Koplow in Haaretz
Haniyeh’s assassination is “a huge morale boost for Israelis and reasserts confidence in Israeli intelligence and military capabilities.”
– David Halperin in JTA
“They sent a message, that we have intelligence, that we have operational capabilities, that your lives are broken, that you’re very permeable. But in the long term, and I’m sorry to say this, it may take more time or less time, but we eventually see that leaders or commanders in those organizations seem to be quite fungible. They’re always replaced.”
– Shira Efron in JTA
“Hopefully, it helps restore some of Israel’s deterrence, which was gravely affected and undermined [on] Oct. 7. It demonstrates not just to Hamas but to the whole Iran-led Axis of Evil that no one is invulnerable, and that no place is out of Israel’s long reach.”
– Shira Efron in JTA
“If you have the opportunity to get rid of the leader of Hamas, you take it, even with the heightened risk of doing it in Tehran. The mistake here isn’t killing Haniyeh, but having missed [past] opportunities for a hostage deal, which now becomes even more unlikely.”
– Michael Koplow in JTA
“I think it’s absolutely unrealistic right now to be talking about any form of peace process or political resolution. If less than a year after 9/11, somebody had stood up and said to Americans, ‘You know what? It’s time to just accept Taliban rule in Afghanistan,’ that would have been a nonstarter.”
– Michael Koplow in The Boston Globe
“Time and again it was mounting public pressure and American urgings that forced Netanyahu to restore the momentum, only to slow it down again.”
– Nimrod Novik in Politico
“It seems likely Netanyahu and his inner circle figure they can basically run out the clock until Trump gets back to the Oval Office in January. Then they’ll have any options they want. There won’t be any pressure on a ceasefire or hostage deal or anything else.”
– Michael Koplow in Politico