Israel’s problems in the U.S. stem from its plummeting standing with Americans. While some point to few tangible consequences so far, the vibes shift can be easily seen, and the consequences will inevitably follow.
The problem with the “Israel Lobby” theory of U.S.-Israel relations and American politics—most famously articulated by Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer, and succinctly that a network of pro-Israel groups and people warped American foreign policy against American interests and toward a pro-Israel bent—is not that it was a conspiracy theory centered around shadowy Jewish power and control, but that it was wrong. There was a very simple explanation for pro-Israel American policy, which is that it was broadly popular. U.S. policy followed American public opinion, and so long as public opinion was highly favorable and particularly cutting across both parties, policies supportive of Israel would follow. Just as predictably, if public opinion turned against Israel, policy was going to follow that too, with the question not being if U.S. policy would change but how much.
This theory is currently being tested. American opinion of Israel has dramatically shifted, measured in multiple polls and across different survey questions. In a world where Pew measures 60% of Americans with an unfavorable view of Israel (including 28% with a very unfavorable view), 62% with an unfavorable view of the Israeli government, and 42% with an unfavorable view of the Israeli people, policy is bound to shift. Yet despite ferment among Democrats in Congress, U.S. policy changes are still hard to detect. Security assistance to Israel has not been cut off, the U.S. and Israel embarked on a joint war against Iran that displayed closer military coordination and integration than arguably any previous American military operation with any partner, the U.S. is imposing punishing sanctions against the International Criminal Court and its personnel over its indictment of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and just last week the Trump administration approved a $2.8 billion sale of bombs to Israel. Recent developments make Israeli hardliners happy, as they don’t believe that they actually need to shift course despite ceaseless warnings from Democratic officials and American Jews, and they make “Israel Lobby” proponents happy, as the lack of consequences confirms their overarching theory of what makes U.S.-Israel relations tick.
Nonetheless, we are living in a vibes-based world, which extends to foreign policy too, and the vibes for Israel should set off alarm bells in Jerusalem. This can be pretty easily seen on both sides of the aisle if one is looking in the right place, and it is myopic to think that this will be contained just because the churn taking place underwater has not yet breached the surface. The starkest example is the 502B resolution currently in the Senate, a mechanism by which any senator can force an investigation into whether a country receiving security assistance is committing gross human rights violations. The current resolution on the floor will, if passed, require the State Department to issue a report within 30 days on the deaths of nine American citizens in the West Bank at the hands of settlers and IDF forces and on alleged human rights violations against detained Palestinian children, and would then trigger an automatic suspension of security assistance if the report is not submitted. The resolution is unlikely to pass, and it is thus tempting for many to wave it away as the latest Democratic messaging vehicle, but that would be a mistake.
The last time a 502B resolution on Israel came to the Senate floor was in 2024, when Bernie Sanders introduced it, and it was easily voted down 72-11, with 10 Senate Democrats joined by Rand Paul. This time around, the margins will not be nearly so comfortable. Without offering any spot predictions, the number of Democrats voting for the resolution to pass is going to surpass the 40 Democratic senators who voted in April for the Joint Resolution of Disapproval targeting sales of D9 bulldozers to Israel, and may even get close to universal Democratic support. This is not because, over the course of two years, an additional three dozen Democratic senators have turned anti-Zionist or decided that Israel’s security is no longer important. It is because they are at their wits end with Israeli policies and actions in the West Bank—policies and actions that have led to the killing, beating, and harassment of American citizens—and the signals from the Israeli government that it has no intention of heeding their concerns, combined with the strong signals coming from their voters demanding that they shift course. It is one thing to dismiss a group of progressives, another to dismiss a larger group of Democrats that includes every senator contemplating running for president in two years, and yet another to dismiss what might turn out to be nearly every Democratic member of the chamber. This is the vibes shift on Israel playing on double speed, with a message that is impossible to ignore unless Israel makes some real changes immediately.
The tangible evidence of the vibes shift on the Republican side is less visibly apparent, but should frighten Israelis more, since it involves President Donald Trump. When Britain led 11 other countries in announcing sanctions on Israel related to its publication of tenders for E-1 construction, the U.S. pointedly did not criticize the UK, and Marco Rubio went out of his way to say that the U.S. shared the UK’s goal of reducing violence in the West Bank. It was later reported that Trump had received a heads-up on the move from new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham before the announcement, and made no effort to get the British to reverse course. And then on Tuesday at the UN, given another bite at the rhetorical apple when asked by reporters about the UK sanctions while standing next to Burnham, Trump pleaded ignorance and claimed to know nothing about it while praising Burnham for strongly condemning Hamas’ October 7 attacks.
It may seem head scratching that Trump, who unveiled a map with his vision for two states in January 2020 that jumped through figurative hoops and literal bypass arteries and tunnels in order to incorporate every existing settlement into Israel, now has nothing to say about a close American ally adopting settlement-related sanctions. But this too is evident of the vibes shift from a president who in many ways ushered in the vibes era. Israel is no longer popular with Republicans, and becoming toxic with Republicans under 50, which is moving the needle in once-unimaginable ways. Even white evangelical views are changing, with 71% having a favorable view of Israel’s government in 2024 compared to just 57% in 2026. You see the shift reflected in Trump’s willingness to keep selling Israel arms while being more reticent to protect the country politically, or in heir apparent JD Vance’s implication that American Middle East policy has been “subservient to the State of Israel” and his praise of Trump for breaking with Netanyahu. Just because American policy has only changed by a couple of degrees should not obscure that the ground is trembling beneath Israel’s feet.
If American public opinion does not reverse course, Israel has no hope of retaining the type of relationship it has been used to, irrespective of whether future administrations are predominantly Republican or Democratic. But public opinion is not permanent and inalterable, and there is one—and only one—way out of this quicksand. It is to absorb why Americans have soured on Israel, with one side focused on Israeli treatment of Palestinians and the other focused on Israeli militarism that appears to them divorced from, if not at odds with, U.S. interests and concerns, and to do what is possible within the constraints of Israeli politics and strategic assessments to correct course. That won’t happen before next month’s election, but if it does not happen soon afterwards, the vibes that now seem like background noise will be as loud as a Trump campaign rally playlist.