The 25th Knesset’s 11th Hour

Voting 106-0, the Knesset has passed the first reading of a bill to dissolve itself and head to elections. In parallel, the coalition is moving aggressively on several fronts to entrench its influence over institutions.

What happens next: The bill advances to the Knesset House Committee, which is chaired by Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz of Likud. The committee will prepare the legislation for second and third readings in the plenum, while also setting a date for elections. Katz has said that the elections will take place between September 8 and October 20.

Legally speaking, elections must take place by October 27 at the latest. Dissolving the Knesset by means of a bill allows the coalition to set its preferred date—although disagreements persist between the Likud and the Haredim about when that is. The Haredi parties reportedly prefer September, whereas Prime Minister Netanyahu is thought to favor putting off the elections until several weeks later. Pushing off elections would buy him more time to achieve a military victory on one of several active fronts or make last-minute progress on the coalition’s legislative agenda.

Key dates yet to be determined: Alongside election day itself, the campaign will be shaped by several notable dates that have not yet been scheduled.

• Deadline to submit party lists to the Central Elections Committee. Usually around six weeks before Election Day. Until this date, parties can still merge, split, or modify their lists. 
• Deadline for the CEC to disqualify lists or candidates. Up to 30 days before the elections, the CEC can vote to bar electoral lists or candidates from competing in the elections. The only legal grounds for doing so are negating Israel’s existence as Jewish and democratic, incitement to racism, or support for armed struggle against the state. 
• Deadline for the Supreme Court to weigh in on CEC disqualification rulings. If the CEC votes to disqualify a candidate or list, that decision must be ratified by the Supreme Court. The court, whose say is final, typically maintains a high threshold for the disqualification criteria and often overrules the CEC. 

Understanding the CEC: The Central Elections Committee is formed following the inauguration of a new Knesset—meaning the current committee took shape following the November 2022 elections. While it is chaired by a Supreme Court judge, its 30 members represent current Knesset factions, with the makeup proportional to representation in the Knesset. This makes the committee an inherently politicized body, though it is subject to the independent oversight of the High Court. 

The next judicial showdown? Seeking to erode checks on the power of the executive branch, the current Netanyahu government has repeatedly violated longstanding norms governing the separation of powers to test the High Court’s willingness to intervene. When it does so, Netanyahu and his allies use the intervention as political fodder to foment populist anger at the so-called deep state. This dynamic recurred with judicial overhaul legislation, the attempted firings of then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s refusal to convene the Judicial Selection Committee (this week for the second time), and more. 

We are now likely to see a similar dynamic with the Central Elections Committee’s disqualification rulings. The CEC—currently dominated by Netanyahu’s Likud and its allies—may opt to bar Arab or even other opposition parties by selectively applying the disqualification criteria. (If Balad meets the threshold for supporting terror, so too does Otzma Yehudit.) The court is all but certain to overrule such partisan decisions, as it has in years past. Yet this time, Netanyahu and his allies can be expected to explicitly campaign on this “judicial overreach.” 

Last-minute appointments: Meanwhile, the government is leveraging its waning weeks to advance its agenda surrounding the appointment several senior officials:

• Mossad chief: This week, Roman Gofman was sworn in as director of the Mossad to replace David Barnea. The High Court dismissed petitions against Gofman’s appointment, which had been opposed by Barnea, AG Baharav-Miara, and Senior Appointments Committee Chair Asher Grunis. Gofman’s nomination was controversial due to his involvement in and concealing of the Ori Elmakayes affair, in which a 17-year-old IDF informant was improperly imprisoned for 18 months by the Shin Bet. 
• Comptroller: On June 3, the Knesset elected Michael Rabello as the state comptroller, who serves a single seven-year term, defeating the opposition’s candidate, retired Supreme Court judge Yosef Elron. In a violation of the law, which mandates the comptroller be elected by secret ballot, coalition lawmakers were instructed to photograph their votes. The comptroller is a watchdog with oversight over state bodies; Rabello has served as Netanyahu’s personal lawyer and is believed to be personally loyal to him. Petitions have already been filed at the High Court against Rabello’s appointment citing procedural and conflict-of-interest concerns, though it remains to be seen whether and to what extent the court will opt to weigh in. 
• Attorney general: The Knesset passed first readings of bills to split the role of the attorney general, advancing a longstanding effort to weaken an independent gatekeeper that serves as a check on the executive. Even if the legislation does not pass before the Knesset dissolves, the next Knesset could theoretically resume the legislative process where it left off. 
• National security advisor: Netanyahu recently appointed Shmuel Ben Ezra as national security advisor and chair of the National Security Council. This is a “trust” position, filled by a political appointee, meaning the next prime minister will have liberty to replace Ben Ezra.