Likud primary results are in. Here are five takeaways and the results:

A Victory for Gideon Sa’ar

This was the big question of the evening: How would Gideon Sa’ar fare after a rhetorical assault by Netanyahu? The prime minister claimed on Likud TV, his new propaganda station, that Sa’ar was planning an internal party putsch to unseat him as Evan Gottesman explained yesterday.

In what Sa’ar described as his greatest political achievement, it looks like he will finish in fourth. The fact that he placed that high despite the barrage of accusations from the prime minister shows his strength within the party and cements himself as the frontrunner to replace Netanyahu when the time comes.

Goodbye Oren Hazan and other MKs

The selfie master himself will need to find another job. Despite his family’s history in the party, Hazan wasn’t able to place high enough and the chances he is in the next Knesset are next to none. Despite placing 27 in the national primary, he will end up around the fortieth spot on the list after you add the spots allocated to specific localities, direct Netanyahu appointments, women, young Likud, and a new immigrant (oleh). Likud is currently projected to win around 30 seats, so anyone at or below the thirtieth spot on the list is unlikely to enter the Knesset.

Other Knesset members falling below a realistic shot at the Knesset alongside Hazan include Rabbi Yehudah Glick, Nava Boker, Dr. Anat Berko, Nurit Koren, Yaron Mazuz, and Communications Minister Ayoob Kara. Kara, an Israeli Druze politician, has already started a personal campaign trying to convince Netanyahu to place him at the number 21 position on the Likud list, a spot reserved for a direct prime ministerial appointment.

Canadian-born MK Sharren Haskel, a favorite of many in the Liberal Likud and New Likudnik factions, will have a tough time getting into the Knesset. She finished in the unlucky twenty-second position in the national primaries, pushing her down to 40 on the final list because of special allocations, while Miki Zohar, an outspoken annexationist, finished in twenty-first, which places him at a more realistic 29.

New Likudniks

After a lengthy legal process, the only New Likudnik candidate allowed to run in the primaries Nir Hirshman performed well and placed thirtieth. He will most definitely miss the Knesset (thirtieth in the primary does not translate to thirtieth on the list), but the New Likudnik faction showed they are a force to be reckoned with. Their list of endorsees performed well, a large part in thanks to their votes. To illustrate their effect, Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz would have been number 30 without the New Likudniks’ support; with it, he finished at 16. Tzachi Hanegbi would have been at 25 without the New Likud; he finished at 12, Gila Gamliel would have been at 20 sans New Likud backing; she is in at 10. The New Likud’s endorsement of Knesset speaker Yuli Edelstein and Energy and Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz is likely what stopped Gideon Sa’ar from finishing first or second.

The Likud Has a Gender Problem

The Likud primary results may have left out controversial figures like Oren Hazan and Elor Azaria-endorsed Yaron Mazuz, but the Likud have a serious issue when it comes to equal gender representation. Gila Gamliel, Miri Regev, and Tzipi Hotovely are the only women to place in realistic positions in the top. Karen Barak does get bumped up in the designated new woman position at 26 but that means Likud’s female representation will max out at four unless Netanyahu decides to use his designated picks to add more women to the list.

Two States No More

After 2017’s Likud Central Committee decision to endorse de facto West Bank annexation, or as supporters like to call it, “applying sovereignty” to all or parts of Judea and Samaria, almost all Likud MK candidates have endorsed some form of annexation as a way of garnering primary support from settler factions within the Likud. A Jerusalem Post article yesterday, found that 28 of the previous 30 Likud MKs had come out in support of annexation; the only two exceptions being Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Tzachi Hanegbi. Hanegbi performed relatively well, finishing fourteenth with the endorsement of the New Likudniks. Avi Dichter and Yoav Galant, once advocates of a two-state solution, have since backtracked.

Likud List After Primary Results:

  1. Benjamin Netanyahu (Chairman)
  2. Yuli Edelstein
  3. Israel Katz
  4. Gilad Erdan
  5. Gideon Sa’ar
  6. Miri Regev
  7. Yoav Galant
  8. Yariv Levin
  9. Nir Barkat
  10. Gila Gamliel
  11. Avi Dichter
  12. Zeev Elkin
  13. Ofir Akunis
  14. Tzachi Hanegbi
  15. Tzipi Hotovely
  16. Chaim Katz
  17. Yuval Steinitz
  18. Dudi Amsalem
  19. Pinchas Idan (Shfela District)
  20. Amir Ohana
  21. Reserved for Netanyahu to select
  22. Ofir Katz (Galilee District)
  23. Etty Atia (Dan district)
  24. Yoav Kish
  25. David Bitan
  26. Karen Barak (New Woman)
  27. Shlomo Kara’i (Negev District)
  28. Reserved for Netanyahu to select
  29. Miki Zohar
  30. Avraham Nguise (new immigrant)
  31. Michal Shir (Tel Aviv District)
  32. Mulla Patin (non-Jew)
  33. Kathy Sheetrit (New Woman)
  34. May Golan (Young people)
  35. Uzi Dayan (Coastal Plain District)
  36. Reserved for Netanyahu to select
  37. Ariel Kallner (Haifa region)
  38. New female candidate
  39. Jerusalem region candidate
  40. Sharren Haskel

District results:

The Galilee – Ofir Katz
Yesha – Shevach Stern
Shfela – Pinchas Idan
Negev – Shlomo Raki
Haifa – Ariel Kallner
Jerusalem – Amit Halevy
Regional Councils – Nissim Vattori
Coastal Plain – Uzi Dayan
Tel Aviv – Michal Shir
Gush Dan (Greater Tel Aviv) – Eti Atiya