Egypt

A Larger Context for the Prisoner Exchange

The current debate among Israelis about a prisoner exchange with Hamas has been consumed by a narrow discussion of short-term gains and losses for both sides, evading the bigger picture of a future reconciliation between the two parties. It is time for both Israel and Hamas to recognize that there is no escape from one another. The deal that would presumably trade Gilad Shalit, Israel's soldier who was captured in 2006 by Hamas, for approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners should be utilized as a precursor for future negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

An Israeli View: Two alternative paths

I continue to believe that a bilaterally negotiated two-state solution between Israel and the PLO is the optimal outcome and is possible. But not under the leadership currently in power in all the relevant capitals: Jerusalem, Ramallah, Gaza, Cairo and last but not least (on the basis of its first 10 months' performance) Washington. In the absence of credible hope for a near-term solution, a number of alternative paths to progress present themselves. Two are reflected in evolving realities on the ground, hence appear to be the most pragmatic. They are not mutually exclusive.

The Prospect for a Breakthrough

Although the Obama administration's efforts to resume the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations have not, as yet, produced tangible results, the prospect for a breakthrough in negotiations may be closer today than it has been in many years. Notwithstanding the inherent skepticism about the prospect of real progress, the conversion of certain regional and international developments have altered the political dynamic and created a new set of opportunities for a negotiated settlement.

A Peace Plan for September

Following his meeting with President Obama yesterday in Washington, Egyptian President Mubarak said that the U.S. will present a detailed peace plan for the Middle East in September. This follows claims circulating earlier this month by Defense Minister Barak that Obama would announce an Israel-Palestinian peace plan within weeks.

Early Retirement for Egyptian President Mubarak?

Recently, news has begun to circulate that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will not complete his current presidential term. Media and Israeli intelligence officials have reported that although Mubarak is continuing to attend conferences and diplomatic visits, he appears worn-down and tired.  Upon his early retirement, Mubarak will face the decision of either passing his rule down to his generally disliked son Gamal or holding early elections.

Jacky Hugi in Ma'ariv reports:

Ayalon on speech: The new "axis of pragmatic forces"

The speech by President Barack Obama in Cairo this afternoon was followed closely in Israel with all stations giving live coverage and commentary. A special note was made of the audience makeup at Cairo University that the Americans pushed for, which included both members of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Israeli Ambassador to Egypt. There was also a major push by the State Department through its embassies to make this speech as accessible as possible across the region from online streaming at Internet cafes to providing speech highlights via text message in Hebrew, Arabic, or English. From Jerusalem it seemed perfectly clear that the President wanted nothing to get in the way of speaking directly to the people and not via their leaders. Immediately following the speech, The Pulse spoke to Major gen. (Res.) Ami Ayalon for his quick reaction.

Hosni Mubarak Canceled Visit to Washington

"Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak canceled his visit to Washington at the recommendation of his physicians, who said that he should continue to rest and recover from the death of his grandson," Israel Radio News reports today:

Does the Obama Administration Have a Peace Plan in the Works?

Jacky Hugi in Ma'ariv:

In slightly less than three weeks, US President Obama will present his vision for the Middle East in a speech to the Muslim world that he will give in Egypt. Meanwhile, everyone is busy guessing exactly what this vision entails. The widely-circulated London based Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper ran an in-depth report that lays out Obama's peace initiative, as learned by high-ranking Palestinian officials.

Netanyahu's Diplomacy From Mubarak to Obama

"Netanyahu's first stop was very successful," Shimon Shiffer writes in Yediot Acharonoth:

Gaza Lockdown

Despite Israel's three-week offensive in Gaza, little has changed. Fewer Kassams are hitting Israel, but this might only be another temporary reprieve.

At the same time, inside Gaza food is scarce. Because the crossings are closed, the food that makes it in comes through illegal tunnels, and is priced accordingly-much higher than usual. Hamas' control of Gaza is as strong as ever and Palestinian factions remain bitterly divided.