Some Thoughts on the Israeli Election

The new Israeli coalition and its international status: right versus left

If the election is a centrist coalition government, even led by Binyamin Netanyahu, then the peace process should be able to be pursued at a moderate pace with the possibility of some limited programs being approved, particularly if they are "bottom up" and relate to economic affairs. This applies to the West Bank in terms of the continuation of the current Dayton programs and even perhaps something minimal vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip. If it is a right wing coalition led by Netanyahu, then it is difficult to conceive of how the peace process might move forward, with the exception of some caveats below. This could lead to serious diplomatic problems for Israel with a certain gift to the Palestinians. Israel would likely be on collision course with many European governments and even perhaps the Obama Administration.

Could the Palestinians save the Israeli right?

This potential vulnerable position of an Israeli right-wing government would be ameliorated if the Palestinians themselves took steps such as continuing to attack Israel violently or if another crisis arose in the region. In 1990, Shamir had just formed the most right-wing government in Israeli history; his administration was thought to be a new Israeli pariah. A few weeks afterward Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, and Shamir ended up looking restrained when he kept out of the Persian Gulf War at the Bush 41 administration's behest.

An Obama initiative in frustration with the right?

But, more likely, a right wing Israeli government could encourage the United States, perhaps with all or some of the members of the Quartet (consisting of the United States, Europe, Russia, and the U.N.) to consider issuing a proposal for a peace deal or partial deal in the tradition of the Clinton parameters for the Israelis and Palestinians to pursue. If the local situation remains chaotic, and there is right wing obstinacy in Israel and utter division among the Palestinians, then those arguing in favor of an "American plan" or initiative will be encouraged. And if a new Obama Proposal is released, and all involved parties except Israel accept it, then the Netanyahu government will be exceptionally isolated indeed.

Concessions by the ruling right?

Despite the unlikelihood of an Israeli right-wing government making major concessions, it would not be inconceivable. The Shamir government, for example, did go to the Madrid Conference in 1991. Netanyahu withdrew from Hebron and signed the Wye deal in 1998. An arrangement with Hamas on an extended cease-fire, or even a deal with Syria, would serve to get the international community off Netanyahu's back. It's hard to pressure a leader who has just made a major concession. Indeed, for a right-wing government, a cease-fire might have a special appeal. The deal might remove international pressure, limit or end violence against Israel if kept by all sides, allow the Netanyahu government to keep praising "bottom up" economic moves, and otherwise keep the status quo. This scenario has a touch of optimism, so let's not make too much of that idea. It's also worth remembering that right-wing Israeli governments invaded Lebanon in 1982 and practically killed Oslo in 1996-1999. In general, Israel would be far better off-certainly in the international community and within the region, if a more centrist government emerged.

Any chance of pragmatic coalition-building?

Netanyahu could achieve the stature he craves if he offered a coalition to Kadima, in which he was the PM, and Kadima-ites Livni and Shaul Mofaz were Foreign and Defense Ministers respectively. Lieberman might actually be better off with Livni, building his domestic and even possibly international stature, and more likely to achieve two crucial issues critical for him: changes in the system of government and secular changes that provided greater flexibility to Jews who sought freedom from the restrictions of the orthodox Rabbinate, especially in the area of marriage. But Israeli politicians, like their counterparts worldwide, do not always react rationally.  (Otherwise Shas would have joined a coalition with Livni last fall, and Labor's Barak at that time would not have made her task so hard.) If egos and ideology could be conquered by pragmatism, a viable and even appealing Israeli government might yet emerge. Sadly, the odds are against it.