The Morning Beat - February 24

Shalit release, cease-fire prospects

"We have been dealing with the Shalit issue over the course of the last three years with all our force and contacts," Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said after accusations that his political battle with Amos Gilad, the Defense Ministry official working on an Egyptian mediated deal with Hamas, could sabotage the process.

Olmert added: "If only I could speak irresponsibly about the subject of Shalit as others are doing, but I am prime minister and I cannot reveal all the efforts we are making - because I have responsibility."

Sources in Cairo on the other hand, told Israel's Radio News that,

Shalit will not be released soon because Israel is not prepared to accede to Hamas's demands and considers its demands to be extortion. The sources told Al-Hayat newspaper that Israel's decision to suspend the talks on a truce would have a negative impact on Israel-Egypt relations. They pointed out that the decision made by Cairo to open the Rafah crossing was meant to send a clear message to Israel that Egypt would not agree to damage the efforts to renew the truce and that it rejected the condition that Shalit be released in return for opening the crossings.

Yediot Achoronth military correspondent, Alex Fishman, believes that the process is continuing,

In the last two years Israel and Hamas have been constantly swapping lists of names. Every time that Hamas demands certain names, Israel comes back with names of its own. There is agreement on some of the names, but about the majority, there isn't.

As of today, we are in the midst of a process. Israel has already agreed to some of the prisoner names out of the list of 450. It is always waiting for Hamas to get back with another list, and perhaps there will be more progress. The gap is still measured in the hundreds.

This could take months, and it could take a year and maybe longer,

Palestinian reconciliation might be a key element to finalize a deal. Mahmoud Abbas and Salaam Fayyad have called for a unity government this week.

Hamas weapons have come up, and Mahmoud Zahar, a Hamas leader in Gaza,  rejects that Hamas give up its arms,

It's our right to bring in everything - money and arms. We will not give anyone any commitment on this subject.

Coalition Negoatitations

Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benyamin Netanyahu has not given up on brining Kadima into a government coalition.

Yuval Karni reports in Yediot Acharonoth,

In their scheduled meeting on Friday, Netanyahu intends to say to Livni: Let's draft the future government's policies together and chart our the government guidelines-and they will be the basis on which the other partners will join. Aides to Netanyahu said last night that Netanyahu has now begun to indicate for the first time that he might be prepared to give up some of the parties on the Right if Kadima were to join. The aides said that Netanyahu intended to come to his meeting with Livni on Friday with blank pages in his notebook, in which he and Livni together could draft the government guidelines.

Livni maintains that she prefers the opposition, but cracks from within Kadima are appearing. But Shaul Mofaz, Kadima's number two and former Livni competitor, refuses,

to rule out the possibility of Kadima joining a Likud-led coalition, despite his party leader Tzipi Linvi's recent rejection of an offer to do so.

"I said during the Kadima [faction] meeting that running towards the opposition is not a sacred matter and that while we must make a supreme effort to form a unity government, we must do so without violating Kadima's basic principles," Mofaz told Army Radio.

Israel Hayon reports today that Likud officials are trying to woo Kadima party members away from Livni,

Likud officials have come to resign themselves to the probability that Kadima is not going to join a Netanyahu-led coalition, and some Likud members have already begun to plot ways of making Kadima fall apart. "If we can't get all of Kadima to come, we'll get some of it,' said one official who was involved in the plans. At issue are plans that are being made by Likud activists and Likud MKs, but Likud Chairman Binyamin Netanyahu has not yet given authorization to begin to act on those plans. Netanyahu would still like to make one last effort this week to persuade Kadima to join.

In the Jerusalem Post, Gershon Baskin asks, What does it really matter? Some right-wing governments have worked for peace while some on the left failed.